retail business development and business performance

Contextual commerce is the new black

Here is a heads-up for contextual commerce. We had eCommerce, the F- and S- and T- and now we are simply back at c-commerce.

There are two converging trends that are now creating the typical mash-up of opportunities and crisis for retailers. (Hands-up if you have had enough change to last a lifetime?)

1. Content Marketing.

What? You didn’t know? Goodness, there is an INSTITUTE already and a recent report has found that 96% of Australian marketers use content marketing. But this post is not about content marketing so here is a good current overview. Content marketing is the background you must understand in order to get what contextual commerce is all about. So a short definition will suffice:

Content marketing is the art of communicating with your customers and prospects without selling. It is non-interruption marketing. Instead of pitching your products or services, you are delivering information that makes your buyer more intelligent. The essence of this content strategy is the belief that if we, as businesses, deliver consistent, ongoing valuable information to buyers, they ultimately reward us with their business and loyalty.

2. eCommerce

It has proven pretty difficult to make a buck on the internet. There are of course a few success stories, but relative to the number of websites online, there are an infinitesimal number of commercial successes that are purely digital. (Internet users have grown up on a diet of FREE, it seems.)

Almost every business model of any internet enterprise that does not sell physical goods, pornography or advice on how to make money on the internet makes money via advertising. Google makes BILLIONS with Adwords.

But even the Adwords goldmine will run dry - unless Google jumps the curve to acquire a new platform for contextual commerce, which is the convergence of content and ecommerce.

Opensky focuses on social network for its contextual commerce efforts.

And Mulu focuses on what they call ‘shoppable ads’.

The above are applications that provide contextual commerce. That is, there are services (applications) that allow the product owners to ‘own’ key words on other websites (content providers) which, when clicked on, does not take you to a website and does not pop up and advertisement – it allows you to buy the item straightaway. ) There are several examples of how some publishers are riding the content wave.)

For example the technology to click on an item of clothing an actress on TV is wearing and then be taken to your shopping cart is rapidly maturing. That is an example of the ‘context’ of that particular item of clothing (provided by the television story) is what sells the item. (I.e. not an advertisement during a break in the programming.)

Contextual commerce is set to disrupt marketing as we know it substantially. It is a world without ads, because everything you see and read and interact with IS ALREADY the ad. Another way is to view it as product placement that is directly shoppable.

What to do?

I advise clients to bet on every technology horse possible. Not because we don’t know what to do or which technology is the best fit, but the process of constantly re-setting the business to cope with changing technologies is the core competency that every organisation must develop.

I think Facebook is going to fail – or at the very least shrink substantially, but at the same time I still advise many clients to hone their technology competencies on Facebook even though in a few years it may be filed in a memory cabinet along with Ning and Myspace and a long list of others. As I made clear in this post, I am not anti-internet. On the contrary if technology is not part of your present, you have no future.

If you put your hand up in the opening paragraph, please note my question was not facetious: the only way to survive, grow and be successful is to build resilient (or rather antifragile) organisations. That is; building an organisation that is designed to cope with constant change is the goal

Go to it…

Dennis

Ganador Management Solutions specialises in helping organisations in the retail supply chain deal productively with challenges of change.

Internet-ready Buildings - in 1997

Now I am digging back a long way - to 1997.
At the time I proposed that the commercial property industry create 'Internet Ready Buildings. I canvassed a few like-minded souls in the property association and we pulled together a whitepaper on the topic.. I wrote the introduction.
Bear in mind this was 16 years ago!

Chapter 1

Introduction and orientation

The new digital era knows no limits, no boundaries and does not discriminate.

The old paradigm of business was atomic and the new paradigm is digital.  Old business problems were about getting products and services to physically, now it is about getting it to them digitally.  Take the fax for example.  The old way required getting a physical piece of paper to another destination. Now your letter never leaves the office but the content magically appears at the other end!  The physical dimension (paper) is now not important, and neither is the physical distribution channel.  Now it is a matter of content.  There is that old yuppie slogan “He who dies with the most toys wins”.  Well in business it is “He who has the best content wins”.

The digital age means that everybody has access to information and there is an enormous amount of it. This has an important implication for every type of business:

There is no competitive advantage in having access to information – it is what you do with that information, the type and quality of information that is important.

This is a new truth that a number of businesses have difficulty in understanding and coming to terms with. It manifests itself in property owners sometimes being secretive when it serves no purpose and brokers still thinking that knowing about stock is their advantage when it’s what they know that should be important.

The value of a computer is not R5000 – that is the cost of the hardware.  The information contained therein, the ability to disseminate and manipulate that information is its real value – and I reckon my PC (personal computer) must be worth at least R300 000.  This makes investment in technology quite phenomenal.  Unlike plant and equipment, motorcars or TV’s a PC is upgradeable – it’s scalable. An old TV gets thrown out – but a computer can just grow and grow as your needs evolve. 

An often-quoted management principle is that a company’s success is determined as follows:

  • 20% because of your industry know-how 
  • 40% because of how you treat your customers
  • 40% because of your technology.

Do you spend your business time in those same ratios?

WHAT IS THE INTERNET?

The Internet is a network of computers. These computers are not directly linked to each other but mostly uses the normal telephone infrastructure to ‘talk’ to each other. In order for computers to talk to each other using the analogue telephone infrastructure they each need a modem. This technology has existed for decades, but has only recently become popular with the public.  The reasons are twofold:

Firstly, Internet Service Providers(ISP’s) positioned themselves as routers of information which is effectively the same function that a server plays in an office computer network.  Your computer is not directly linked to another, but rather to your service provider.  Service providers are linked to each other, and every computer that is linked to a service provider is then effectively linked to every other computer.

The second reason is that special software called browsers has been developed that makes it easy for ordinary people to navigate on the information highway. Some years ago this was only possible if you were real computer boffin; and now it is easier than working a word processor. The average lesson to get started is 5 minutes.

HOW DOES THE INTERNET WORK?

The Internet is a fairly new and very dynamic distribution channel for information/ data. Whether it is pictures, sound or words, a computer can turn any data into bits and bytes (binary code); transmit it over the telephone line to any other computer that is connected to the net - anywhere in the world - in an instant!

If you pause to think about that for a minute, you will suddenly realise that the applications are endless - and that is not just a buzzword. It is a TV, VCR, a Hi-Fi, a fax, a typewriter all in one.

It is a network of phenomenal proportions, fast approaching a hundred million computers - and nobody owns it. People join and leave as they please. They can add any content to their computer and post it on their website.  There are no limits.

A sign of a well designed Internet website is one that keeps that visitor (or ‘surfer’) in that site for a long time, and makes them come back for more. The vast majority of the websites are the equivalent of old, bullet-riddled billboards on a dusty platteland road.  Unless you are planning to make your website work for you, you will do more damage than good by having a poor presence on a medium where the users are by definition opinion leaders, innovators and changemasters. 

Many businesses mistake a site with lots of fancy graphics (the so-called bells and whistles) for an effective site. A visitor (and every visitor is a potential customer) will only wait once to see the pictures, but it won’t make them come back.

BUSINESS ON THE NET

From the property perspective, the potential of the Internet is limitless as well. Without leaving your desk, you can:

  • Design a building
  • Raise finance
  • Contact partners/ contractors
  • List the property with brokers
  • Find tenants
  • Sign lease agreements
  • Do appropriate credit checks
  • Show the prospective tenant a finished unit - before construction has even started
  • Keep in contact with every role player
  • Keep an eye on the building work
  • Have site meetings with all concerned
  • Approve the final work

You only have to take occupation of the building physically, and everything else happens in cyberspace. This is not exaggeration, and each one of these activities are taking place now.

The question is: How do I go about doing business on the Net? The answer is, very soon but in an integrated manner:

The window of opportunity is quite small. With the Internet, it does not matter where in the world you are - you are on an equal footing with everyone else. For example, there is one book retailer on the Net (Amazon.com) that has quickly established itself and now there is no need for another. I have no idea where this retailer is physically located in the world; and neither do I need to know.  Every other book retailer will battle to establish a presence. 

As physical property is a somewhat different commodity, the need is somewhat different. The Internet is a potential productivity gain, if you can capitalise on the opportunities that are inherent in the property management and development process. For instance, a specialist architectural practice in Kuala Lumpur or India or wherever  may be contracted to do design work - without incurring travel expenses whatsoever, and have the work paid for at a favourable exchange rate.

To get maximum benefit from an Internet presence, the work-flow in your organisation must be designed to capitalise on the potential productivity gains offered by the Internet. You should not just duplicate existing services in an electronic format. After all do you back up a fax with a telex - just in case? It is a new business paradigm, and the workplace must be re-engineered to take advantage of that. For instance, a tenant may ‘sign’ a lease on the Internet and submit it to you.  The lease can be verified by a credit bureau, approved by a regional manager, posted to the accounts department for notice, deposits made and the Vacancy Schedule updated - without any human interference.

INTERNET WEBSITES

The dominant part of the Internet is the World Wide Web (WWW)- which is just a collection of websites. The website is just a page (or many pages) full of information that you allow access to from the outside. The first page or front page of this electronic publication is the so-called homepage. The homepage usually functions as some kind of a central link or ‘menu’ to the rest of the site. 

The name and address of a website is referred to as an URL. For example, SAPOA’s website address is:

http://www.sapoa.org.za

The address is written entirely in lower case, without any spaces and exactly with the punctuation marks as indicated. One missing full stop or dash or letter will result in your not being able to find the address on the Net.

The components of the address are:

http:// This merely tells your computer that you are using a specific computer language or protocol (hyper text transfer protocol).

www.  This states that your website is hosted on the World Wide Web part of the Internet. There are other aspects to the Net, but you can let the computer boffins worry about that.

sapoa. That is our domain name that has been uniquely registered.

org. This states that it is an Organisation (non-profit). Other alternatives are: co (non-US company), ac and edu (academic and educational institutions), gov (government), and so forth. Most SA companies will have the descriptors .co.za in their URL.

za. This is the country code for South Africa. Other self-explanatory one’s are nz, au, uk and so forth.

The above is your website address. E-mail is usually integrated into the ‘Internet package’, and every domain is entitled to at least one e-mail box. My e-mail address is similar to the website, but not quite the same: stratserv@sapoa.org.za.

You can clearly see the relation between the two addresses, but they are not the same. The difference is like knowing a company’s physical and postal addresses. Both are useful, but for different purposes. The one is for mail, and the other one is to visit!

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROPERTY INDUSTRY

The VMS and other search engines

**Note in 1997 I createda JV with a service provider to create the 'Vacancy Management System' - an early precursor to realestate.com.au

Disintermediation of the broking fraternity is a well-publicised issue. Whereas brokers could previously trade successfully merely based on the fact that they had access to information that nobody else had, those days are now rapidly coming to an end.  The playing field has been levelled and big and small now have access to the same information.  This has lowered the barriers to entry for this industry even further.

At the moment the VMS denies access to the casual surfer and only authorised access by certain members is allowed. This protects the broker from prospective tenants doing deals directly with the owner.  This should not lull brokers into a false sense of security, because it is now the time to seek new service opportunities based on different paradigms. 

PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT

Tenants will soon be asking about Internet-ready buildings- just as they ask about air-conditioners. New developments and refurbishments will have to consider the new technologies. Is it wireless bridges and routers or is it fibre optics? Is it diginet or leased lines? Must the expense be capitalised or is it part of operating costs? Who is responsible for maintenance?  There are a whole host of technical issues that are addressed by this publication.

PROPERTY MANAGEMENT

Much more can now be done from a remote site than was previously possible. Tenants, contractors and professionals can be sourced on the Net. Strategically installed video cameras can be accessed from a distant site and the building observed. Building records can be archived intelligently and very cheaply on the net. Payment for services and rent collection can be done automatically through electronic funds transfer – reducing bad debt risks and arrears.

TRENDS, PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES

E-mail is becoming pervasive, and is an exceptionally viable alternative to snailmail and fax. Before printing new stationery with your new addresses, investigate whether registering your own domain is not more advisable.

Be careful to register your company’s domain name before somebody else reserves it.  All website addresses are registered at a central database for a once-off fee of approximately R250.00.  A domain name serves the purposes of identifying the addressee.  If your company is the sole tenant of an office block, you want naming rights.

Assuming that your service provider is called Newbuzz, and you are trading as ABC Properties. Your registered e-mail address can be abcprop@newbuzz.co.za; and similarly, your website can be www.newbuzz.co.za/~abcprop.  But you don’t want any reference to your ISP in your address, because if you want to change to a better service provider, you have to redo all your stationery. If you register abcprop as your own domain name, your e-mail address will be (for example) john@abcprop.co.za., and your website address (URL) will be www.abcprop.co.za. This is irrespective of the fact that you are using Newbuzz or any other service provider. (If you want to know what your computer guys have done in this regard, check your business card!)

General practice is that companies have their own domain names, whereas individuals will have their e-mail account addressed to their ISP’s domain.

Choose your service provider with care, and even then don’t sign long term contracts because it is a rapidly changing industry, and not all companies live long.

Be careful of being over-charged for services. Some charge out of ignorance and other out of avarice. Companies without substantial IT/ Computer departments are welcome to contact the author at SAPOA for an opinion on quotations/ costs if they appear substantial.

In companies with office networks, there is a security risk that people from the outside can access your network. Not all hackers are malicious, but if there is a path out (onto the Net) then there is a path in. Firewalls are computers and/or programs that are designed to keep hackers out, but although security is improving - there is no foolproof system. As an interim measure, just connect one free-standing PC to the Internet. The pages that you want on the Internet are hosted at your service provider.  Of course you can act as your own service provider (ISP), but this is advisable really only in very large conglomerates where there are massive economies of scale and hundreds of users.

The Internet-ready building concept

A building can be an office park, a home a shopping centre or an industrial building. A building is internet-ready when it is designed, managed and marketed as space that has been configured and wired for Internet use. The concept of Intelligent buildings is a wider concept that includes for instance highly computerised lifts, air-conditioning etc. which 'intelligently' adapts to its environment.

My contention is, however, that the Internet infrastructure will become the network of choice to create intelligent buildings, and as such will precede the decision to create intelligent buildings in the future.


We have created a market for IDEAS and you are welcome to swing by and get yourself some.
Franchisors: Convert your OPS MANUAL into a custom-branded, interactive web-based application for $5k only

Why Marissa Mayer agrees with me and predictions about privacy

I continue my smartarse theme this week.

I wrote this in early 2001 and touched on the idea that people don't care too much about the information they share (privacy). If you consider what people put online via social media you will have to say that even people will say they value their privacy, they don't really act that way.

I also spoke about why tele-commuting is not going to take off in a big way any time soon,.

As I said, it is smart-arse week.


The new world of work

A lot has been written and said about the new world of work where we will all tele-commute, work via the Web and where robots take over all manufacturing. Without exception, the main proponents of the new way have at the very least got their timing very wrong.

Predicting the future is a dangerous business made doubly so when you are trying to predict human behaviour and slap a deadline on it. However, there are some fundamental values and characteristics of human nature that you can pretty much bank on as being timeless. Man is a social animal. The people who predicted that the VCR would spell the death of the cinematic experience did not consider this simple fact. The consulting landscape is littered with corpses who staked their reputation on the extrapolation of a trend or the discovery of a new technology without due consideration of the essence of human nature. It is time to dispel a few myths about the new world of work.

Privacy.

Man likes to talk about himself and herself. All those who bemoan the demise of privacy on the Net should think again. Barring some really confidential information like a criminal record or serious lack of funds, people generally don’t mind talking about themselves. There are thousands of market research firms in the world who can attest to the fact that the vast majority of people who do not want to participate in a survey do so purely because of the perceived lack of time. They just could not be bothered at that particular point in time. It is very rarely a matter of principle.

Once aggregators of data such as marketers of consumer products and services have all the info they need, the real question will be what to do with it. People are a peculiar mass of contradictions and inconsistencies. Traditional market research has long perpetuated the notion that people can be grouped together as markets based on a slicing and dicing of their attitudes, behaviours or lifestyles. This has given the managers and accountants the false sense of security that marketing is an exact science. The real truth is that people are as unique as their fingerprints signify. In the past the (subtle) differences between people have been disguised by the limitations of research methodologies and the lack of data. If you ask people a few questions, chances are that their answers will be able to be grouped in a meaningful way. With access to perfect information and limitless data, the differences become more pronounced.

And even if marketers figure how to use data in some meaningful way, the targets of their advertising or sales techniques will have found a way to block them. The key in the privacy debate is not whether researchers/marketers will gain access to personal data. I think it was Scott McNealy [CEO- Sun Microsystems] who said famously that ‘privacy is dead – get over it’. He is right of course; but the funny thing is that, by and large, people don’t mind. The reason is that they fully expect to be able to somehow filter the appeals of the marketers – probably through the use of technology. Only messages from trusted sources will get through to them. It is the modern, adult version of “talk to the hand because the ears aren’t listening”. Somehow the Internet will have its own version of the TV remote that allows users to zap between channels and skip commercials at will. It might be as simple as filtering applications as they exist today or something more fanciful. The important point is that consumers/users don’t mind the loss of privacy (outward-bound data flow), but mind the intrusion (inward-bound data flow) of messages coming in. The overload of information has long been identified as an issue that has been made more ubiquitous with the advent of the Internet. But people will find a way to cope, they always do.

Like most people with Internet access, I have done the Amazon.com thing and I certainly do a lot of banking on the Net. There is a bit of concern when I pay by credit card, but I keep a low limit on the card anyway, so my exposure is limited. I tend not to divulge my e-mail address to all and sundry websites, and when I do, it is the freemail one. There I would monitor the spam vs. quality and if necessary, transfer it tio the regular address or attempt to cancel. I have never had difficulty in getting unsubscribed from a website.

Work from home

As stated earlier, man is fundamentally a social animal. Work from home and telecommuting is bound to increase – up to a point. It is a work style that will suit certain jobs more than others, and more importantly the ability to work from home will be important at certain stages of ones life. A career woman who wants to raise a family, a son who needs to look after frail parents or someone who needs to live in one city but work in another are examples of the people who might seek out telecommuting opportunities.

But most people seem to like the idea of leaving the drudgery and dirty dishes behind, dress up a bit and get out. It probably provides people with some meaning in their lives and also gives the man opportunity to play different roles, which are so necessary for their psychological balance. And employers will realise sooner or later that a lot of progress and problem solving comes from the creative tension fostered by direct interaction with peers, customers and competitors.

This means of course that if you had hoped traffic jams would become a thing of the past any time soon, you are wrong. I am rather more fortunate of course, as I drive for an hour every morning and an hour every evening down one of the most beautiful stretches of road in the world. The south coast of New South Wales, Australia is a beautiful part of the world. Particularly as the highway crests Mt. Ousley and follows a sweeping curve downwards it delivers a stunning view of Wollongong. The early morning sun paints the shimmering expanse of sea and harbour and this picture is framed by lush vegetation.

We have created a market for IDEAS and you are welcome to swing by and get yourself some.
Franchisors: Convert your OPS MANUAL into a custom-branded, interactive web-based application for $5k only

Standing on the shoulders of giants to see retail's future

To continue this weeks theme on the FUTURE and PREDICTIONS, I want to take you back to the 1980s when Alvin Toffler wrote Future Shock (1980) and The Third Wave.

Remember that when he wrote this, we had not yet seen the wide-scale adoption of the PC or the Internet.

This is what Toffler predicted:

"For Third Wave civilization, the most basic raw material of all--and on that can never be exhausted--is information... With information becoming more important than ever before, the new civilization will restructure education, redefine scientific research and, above all, reorganize the media of communication... Instead of being culturally dominated by a few mass media, Third Wave civilization will rest on inter- active, de-massified media, feeding extremely diverse and often highly personalized imagery into and out of the mind- stream of the society.
"The giant centralized computer with its whirring tapes and complex cooling systems--where it still exists--will be supplemented by myriad chips of intelligence, embedded in one form or another in every home, hospital, and hotel, every vehicle, and appliance, virtually every building-brick. The electronic environment will literally converse with us" (352).
"To operate these factories and offices of the future, Third Wave companies will need workers capable of discretion and resourcefulness rather than rote responses. To prepare such employees, schools will increasingly shift away from present methods still largely geared to producing Second Wave workers for highly repetitive work" (353).

Today we are living these predictions.

Toffler got it right because he did not simply look at basic statistical trends, he looked at the fundamentals and did a meta-analysis on the context. He understood human nature and based his thinking on those timeless principles.

I am sure there are a few companies out there who wished they had paid a bit more attention back then.

Dennis


We have created a market for IDEAS and you are welcome to swing by and get yourself some.
Franchisors: Convert your OPS MANUAL into a custom-branded, interactive web-based application for $5k only

Connecting the dots like a turkey

NN Taleb explains the turkey problem thus:

“Consider a turkey that is fed every day, Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”

Of course most people who think about the future, think they are thinking when they are simply extrapolating the trends.

They are usually right about tomorrow looking like today, But the further out you go the more useful your predictions would be, the less accurate they are.

There is of course a better way - a smarter way. More about that some other time.

We have created a market for IDEAS and you are welcome to swing by and get yourself some.
Franchisors: Convert your OPS MANUAL into a custom-branded, interactive web-based application for $5k only.

I was smarter than JB Were about Internet Retailing, and Lend Lease did not listen

This week I am focusing on the future. I am talking about the future of Marketing at a Perth Conference in a few months, so I am updating my prognostications and thinking about the future.

Then I came across this beauty:

This is an exact and complete copy of something that I wrote in 2000 - some 13 years ago...
I can't remember who I wrote it for - or indeed why - but I commented on commentary made by JB Were on the (then) JHD Internet retailing study.
Not only did I disagree with their assessment, I also told Lend Lease what they should have done.
NOBODY likes a smartarse - especially after the fact - but I wonder if Lend Lease wished they had listened to me? 'I told you so' is small consolation though...


The future ain’t what it used to be

by D Price

The JB Were commentary on the JHD/ Marketshare Internet retailing study makes interesting reading, but also many arguable points. A study that understates the impact of the Internet shows a distinct lack of understanding of what the Internet is and more importantly what it can be, and apparently also the craft of Retailing. Research is too often a summary of all the answers they get, but did they ask the right questions? Not having had oversight of the original study and its methodology, the questions raised below are inferred from the commentary by JB Were.

One. The first major oversight in stating the impact will be relatively minimal is of course that it ignores the impact of the volatility caused by the many attempts at market entry by hopeful entrepreneurs. Even though many may not last long (the burn rate of their venture capital is too high) they still cause competitive pressure and this is applied serially. This means traditional retailers will face continued and long-term margin squeeze. Like space invaders they just keep coming at you – principally because the barriers to entry are so low. [They are of course their own worst enemy because they are eroding consumer confidence over time.]

Two. Retailing is not only reliant on price to move merchandise. Fundamentally the commentary is correct and that the total cost of merchandise may be made up of different elements (distribution costs v rent). But what the analysis overlooks is that there is also a distribution cost in traditional retail channel which is borne by the customer. If the consumer perceives the + 15% charge for delivery to be less than his or her cost (i.e less than the consumer’s opportunity cost), then a niche opens up for online sales. Convenience is a big factor in retailing and its cost can not be underestimated.

Three. There is a high degree of risk in basically asking consumers to predict their future behaviour. I am willing to bet my entire net worth (don’t get excited, there isn’t much…) that cellular phone sales exceeded all the expectations of manufacturers, service providers, retailers and shopping centre owners. Thomas Watson famously predicted that the worldwide demand for the first IBM mainframes were to be the grand total of 5. The US Telegraph Company saw no future in Alexander Bell’s invention, and the typewriter was rejected initially as fad that could not replace a good stenographer. There are many examples like that including the photocopier and the fax. The Internet gives the consumer freedom, choice and convenience. These are powerful values that drive fundamental consumer behaviour patterns.

Four. The respondents in the survey – in all likelihood- could only assume that web shopping in 5 years time would be the same as it is today. That is, sitting behind the computer, browsing and searching and ordering and waiting and waiting. The technology is in its infancy, and it will evolve to increasingly suit the requirements of consumers. Internet shopping will in future probably not even involve the computer but rather the fridge or the mobile phone. Along the same vein, the study assumes that the 20-yr old of today and the 20-yr old of 2010 will shop the same way and for the same things. The 10-yr old of today is growing up with a different market view and technology expectation.

Five. The effect on the retail mix of centre should not be underestimated. As book stores, music stores, florists, financial services computer & software shops slowly disappear or get relegated to strip shops, it will reduce leasing options, which in turn, because space remains fixed, will be leased (at a lower rate?) to an existing category which diminishes the viability of that category which further pushes rentals down. There is a ripple effect that could be dangerously insidious. The product categories that are most amenable to Internet shopping are:

  • those that can easily be turned from atoms to digits (music, software)
  • those that can be automated because it is either a very routine activity (paying bills) or a highly complicated transaction (buying insurance)
  • the conditional purchases (gifts, impulse items) especially where the recipient is geographically separated from the giver.

Six. As retailers jostle with the dot coms for Internet space & marketshare, the traditional retailer (a) diverts its attention from the existing business and (b) dilutes their financial investment in the existing businesses. This inevitably means less capital expenditure and all the corresponding consequences.

Seven. The commentary does not define ‘shopping’. The role of the Internet in making comparisons, sourcing merchants and/or products may well extend way beyond the actual transfer of cash. These activities are an integral part of the shopping experience and the concomitant loss of impulse buying opportunities that are lost in a shopping centre is enormous. In some categories, impulse buying amounts to 85% of sales.

Eight. The effect of a real decline of 5% in sales obviously also means a decline in volume. Most of the retailer’s distribution costs are relatively fixed, and any savings made by selling less, will certainly be offset by loss of channel power (e.g fewer quantity discounts). This means expenses remain relatively fixed, whilst sales are declining – through to 2005 and beyond. A 5% decline in sales volume that continues to decline must be of concern to any long-term retail property owner. Continued negative prospects will depress share prices, lower the ability of the retailer to raise capital which in turn impacts on its ability to finance itself for new concepts or through sales troughs. ‘Market sentiment’ – as any investor knows – is a difficult thing to change

Nine. The famous saying of ‘Lies, lies and damn statistics’ certainly applies. The graph predicting % online sales (JHD/Marketshare) is very misleading. Internet sales have doubled every year for the last 3 years (at least). The authors are of the opinion that the rate of increase will flatten out dramatically. The graph still shows exponential growth, but the X-axis (time scale) jumps from 1-year intervals to 5-yr intervals on the same axis. Effectively they are saying that the exponential growth will not continue to happen, but the graph still shows the exponential growth curve, which is what we intuitively believe.

This  graph is really what they are predicting – a gradual and steady growth rate and not an exponential growth rate.

The basis of this assumption is the 1700 consumers who were (in some form or another) asked whether they (thought) they were going to shop more often on the Internet in the future. Asking consumers to extrapolate behaviour from the present into new paradigm is very risky to say the least.

Ten. The results are ‘surprising’ because the impact is ‘less significant than the market expectation’. I would be very worried if my research differed from the ‘market’. There is always a first time, but the market never gets it wrong. Basic human greed may make investors overpay for shares in the future and correct it, but there are literally thousands and thousands of investors and analysts who have looked at the Internet, and they have seen the future. I think this may be a case of getting the right answer to the wrong question.

Finally. It is often said that a company’s supreme goal is to ‘satisfy the customer’s needs’. Paradoxically, this is also fraught with the danger that the customer’s future needs (which are presently unprofitable) are ignored. Focus on present customer satisfaction stifles innovation. I don’t believe LLR is the kind of company that will risk that.

My view is that the Internet, as we know it, is going to change the shopping landscape radically and forever. The process will take time and there is sufficient space and time to enter the market better than most of the hype would seem to suggest. Most importantly, I believe Lend Lease should focus on the Infrastructure side of the business where

  • there is higher barriers to entry
  • the existing skills set of project management can be best leveraged
  • Lend Lease has traditionally made its money (property infrastructure & financial infrastructure)
  • the scope is global & compatible with existing businesses and not competing with customers and suppliers.

The Internet (shopping) phenomenon reminds me of the situation where a movie becomes hugely popular despite the fact that all critics hate it. But then, it is just another opinion…

Regards

Dennis Price


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Future of retail is not about learning new rules, but this...

I constantly contemplate the future of commerce.

Many futurists are charlatans and frauds, but strategy requires forward thinking, so we dabble in the future by necessity.

I have made some bold predictions in the past:

  1. Six years ago I published this list of 8 items – picking winners in the very long term. So far, I am happy to stick by 8 from 8 on that list.
  2. Five years ago (Mar 2007) I published this list of 18 items from a presentation that I gave. Upon review I give myself 18 out 18.
  3. Almost 3 years ago I predicted the failure of Apple. Whilst the jury is still out – I did say 5 years – the share price graph favours me.

What follows is not so much bold predictions, but stating the bleeding obvious – but please read on:

  1. Pending Doom: I have been predicting since 2007 the inevitability of a major internet. It is only a matter of time. Governments are not talking about it much and few people who are in the know talk about. This is not conspiracy theory stuff, but simple logic: as societies become increasingly reliant on the internet backbone, it will be become an increasingly attractive target for disruption – for whatever cause.
  2. Middlemen go poof! Just like there is computerised share trading (based on algorithms that will scare the pants off you) there will eventually be eCommerce sites that are created and optimised by algorithms – and fully maintained – including social media profiles and ‘authentic’ interactions with the community. This will become an easy option for any/all suppliers or manufacturers to bypass the entire retail network (including traditional and 3rd party online retailers) and to reach out to the consumer directly – at a lower cost than ever before. (Why would you accept drop ship orders if you can create hundreds of sites in different languages for your own products by buying a piece of software?)
  3. On a short chain: The suppliers/manufacturers might not enjoy their newfound powers for long because it seems that a new force will disintermediate the only remaining member of the retail supply chain. The development of 3D printing is something I had never foreseen – but it is happening and it may be possible that the entire supply chain will exist only in buying the raw materials to ‘print’ – since presumably the 3D printer itself will eventually be printed?
  4. Zeros and ones everywhere: Just as physical goods become entirely disintermediated, services will increasingly also be offered via the internet. Holograms, VR and such technologies only point to the beginning of what is possible in that space. I can imagine a future where a digital hairdresser virtualises in your bedroom and based on a 3D view of your head executes the perfect haircut. She might even chat to you – who knows? When you press ‘enter’ she disappears again. (Or is Ctrl F9 shuts her up.)
A few tangential points in summary:
  • The economic system is unstable, in transition and vulnerable.
  • The supply and purchase of goods and services is influenced by the balance of power in the retail supply chain.
  • Technology is empowering the consumer, and this means no organisation will have the power (for long) to dictate an outcome. As powerful as Amazon is right now, it only takes a small tweak in technology to connect the writer directly with the reader and Amazon is history…
  • Social media is teaching brands that they have diminishing power and that they in fact don’t really own the brand. (They never did, it was always what the customer thought the brand was anyway – but it is now becoming evident.)
  • Winners won’t be easy to pick and their success may be fleeting as it depends on the fickle goodwill of the consumer. (It always has, but consumers now have direct, swift and powerful recourse because they can activate the Social Mob.)
The key point I want to make is this:

Everything is changing – but few are designing their business for success.

Everyone already knows the points I have made above, but seem to prefer not to think about it and certainly seem to be hoping the status quo lasts long enough to sell the business or build up a large enough super before the s&*t hits the fan, right?

Right now, in almost every business I come across (and I know this is a biased sample) I observe:

  • Systems are redundant
  • Technologies are obsolete
  • Training is ineffective and old-school
  • Strategies are superseded by reality
  • Pursuing market knowledge via traditional research, which is redundant
  • The traditional channels of communication are fracturing

So, how do you design your business for success?

Most executives think (and advisors will tell you) the rules are changing which makes it a different game. You simply have to re-learn the new rules. (I use that metaphor myself because people are familiar with it, but it is not really helpful.)

The new game is an ever-changing game. It’s not as if it used be Aussie Rules that evolved into Rugby League. It is more like while you are playing cricket it becomes croquet and you are competing against a pole vaulter and it is all happening in a pool.

It is not about learning new rules; it is about learning how to relearn constantly and responding to it.

Quick example:

Even though Facebook is an inappropriate marketing tactic for many businesses, I have helped some clients go down that path. NOT because Facebook is important – on the contrary – but the process of learning about the new platform and developing a strategy around it is important.

Quick action:

Establish a project team to write/re-write your job descriptions. The process of doing so will force you to rethink who is doing what and why. For larger organisations this is actually imperative, not because job descriptions are important, but because the process of designing the jobs forces you to consider and evaluate the roles and requirements in the context of the changing landscape. If you are too busy dealing with the present, ask someone to help.

The key to success is to build a business that is capable of systematically responding to changes.

Have fun

Dennis

GANADOR: Architects of high-performance retail environments.

You can now buy ideas – GET IT HERE.

PS: This started out as a blog post and over the Easter weekend it became a 38pp treatise. And I am not done yet. It will probably become an eBook at some stage. Subscribe to get fair notice if you are interested in this sort of thing and I will let you know when I am done with the pretty version with links and videos and images and loads of practical examples.

Retail story telling (video)

A great example e of telling stories in retail.

I can hear the objections:

  • I can't do that.
  • Only in New York - it won't work here
  • There is only room for one.

That would kinda be missing the point. This is not the only way to tell a story and this particular business model is not the only one that will work.

The benefits of the GFC for retail entrepreneurs

Imagine you are tasked with finding out how to make something better. (Aren’t we all?). As part of this process you have figure out whether a particular piece of steel is good for the product.

You apply pressure to it and discover that the beam remains intact (i.e. it successfully performs) at tension level 8. You learn from success.

You repeat the exercise. This time you discover it breaks at level 8.1. You learn from failure.

Which piece of information is more useful?

Obviously it is more useful to appreciate what makes something fail rather than what makes  it succeed.

And when we have learned that, we tend to seek more of that.

But this is the difference between real, sustainable success and terminal failure: Your real challenge is to seek the solution that will benefit under pressure.

Taleb has coined a term for this: Antifragile.

Something that breaks under stress is fragile - drop a glass vase on the ground.

Something that does not break easily under some stress is robust - drop a plastic vase.

Robustness is not the opposite of fragility. Robust is simply less fragile.

But what if there is something that actually benefits (grows stronger) from stress?

When you get a flu shot, you get a dose of germs that will make you stronger.

When you exercise, you stress your muscles but it makes you stronger.

When a child eats dirt, it strengthens their immune system.

When your father throws you against the fence for not hitting the tennis ball properly, you learn to play shots under pressure.

It is counter-intuitive to seek out stressors to get stronger in our business, but we seem happy accept that Botox is a good thing. (It works on the same principle.)

Some time ago the concept of a ‘burning platform’ was popular in management literature. (Here is a post by Harvard Business Review on the topic.)

This idea has been bundled into obscurity by sexier, more current jargon; and few practitioners actively use it.

Knowing what succeeds is not as useful as knowing what fails. But knowing what fails is not nearly as useful as knowing what improves under stress. And the only way to find out is to put your business under stress – inject some botox or set fire to the rig.

Then again; the environment will provide enough shocks to our economic system to foster the antifragility needed to prosper. (GFC anyone?)

What matters is whether you use this as an opportunity to become antifragile. As hard as that may be…

PS: I wrote a post in April 2009 predicting that we will regret our response to the GFC. I still stand by that view.


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TOMORROW'S POST:

How the internet transformed the world (VIDEO)

The end of the GFC: Good times ahead

What is the Big Prediction

I predicted on 25 June 2010 that Apple will fail. (Shares are currently at a 5-year low.) That is one of my most high-profile predictions, but without getting to much wind being blown you-know-where; let’s just say I have the knack.

So, here is my next big one.

I am predicting that we are entering a Bull Market. (Some ups and downs – but overall at least 10 years of growth.) This growth won’t come in the same sectors and industries that we previously benefited from growth, so there will still be massive pain for many businesses as those industries fade into obscurity.

There is one caveat about Australia: The government is extremely meddlesome and they are tinkering with a system they don’t understand – in fact, no one can truly understand a complex adaptive system.

Most other governments have learned a lesson over the last five years – but since Australia was spared the worst of the downside, we may not have much of an upside – and there may even be some pain coming our way depending on what the government will break anytime soon. (Or they could still be lucky.)

That said; if you have used the opportunity of the GFC to become more antifragile, then you are in for a good run.

If I am wrong you will be no worse off than you are now and if I am right, you will be smiling all the way.

Lesson: Always associate with optimists.

Artisanal Marketing

Subscribers to our Winners' Circle Newsletter are used to irregularly receiving a newsletter. In it I would normally included many interesting links - and usually one longer article. 

Rather than posting that content irregularly, I have opted to (in future) distribute it as it becomes available. (Some content need to be fresh.) The link to the article on ARTISANAL MARKETING in this post is one of those.

I have thought about Marketing into the future for awhile and I have labelled some of my thoughts as 'artisanal marketing' for a reason - and would love to hear your thoughts.

The link take you to an article published on our website. (There are a few others to browse through if you are so inclined.)


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© 2013 Ganador Management Solutions (Pty) Ltd PO Box 243 Kiama, NSW, 2533 Australia Tel: (+61)2-4237 7168 (Header Left: Chaos_Theory_by_clubraf @ DevianArt)