retail business development and business performance

Contextual commerce is the new black

Here is a heads-up for contextual commerce. We had eCommerce, the F- and S- and T- and now we are simply back at c-commerce.

There are two converging trends that are now creating the typical mash-up of opportunities and crisis for retailers. (Hands-up if you have had enough change to last a lifetime?)

1. Content Marketing.

What? You didn’t know? Goodness, there is an INSTITUTE already and a recent report has found that 96% of Australian marketers use content marketing. But this post is not about content marketing so here is a good current overview. Content marketing is the background you must understand in order to get what contextual commerce is all about. So a short definition will suffice:

Content marketing is the art of communicating with your customers and prospects without selling. It is non-interruption marketing. Instead of pitching your products or services, you are delivering information that makes your buyer more intelligent. The essence of this content strategy is the belief that if we, as businesses, deliver consistent, ongoing valuable information to buyers, they ultimately reward us with their business and loyalty.

2. eCommerce

It has proven pretty difficult to make a buck on the internet. There are of course a few success stories, but relative to the number of websites online, there are an infinitesimal number of commercial successes that are purely digital. (Internet users have grown up on a diet of FREE, it seems.)

Almost every business model of any internet enterprise that does not sell physical goods, pornography or advice on how to make money on the internet makes money via advertising. Google makes BILLIONS with Adwords.

But even the Adwords goldmine will run dry - unless Google jumps the curve to acquire a new platform for contextual commerce, which is the convergence of content and ecommerce.

Opensky focuses on social network for its contextual commerce efforts.

And Mulu focuses on what they call ‘shoppable ads’.

The above are applications that provide contextual commerce. That is, there are services (applications) that allow the product owners to ‘own’ key words on other websites (content providers) which, when clicked on, does not take you to a website and does not pop up and advertisement – it allows you to buy the item straightaway. ) There are several examples of how some publishers are riding the content wave.)

For example the technology to click on an item of clothing an actress on TV is wearing and then be taken to your shopping cart is rapidly maturing. That is an example of the ‘context’ of that particular item of clothing (provided by the television story) is what sells the item. (I.e. not an advertisement during a break in the programming.)

Contextual commerce is set to disrupt marketing as we know it substantially. It is a world without ads, because everything you see and read and interact with IS ALREADY the ad. Another way is to view it as product placement that is directly shoppable.

What to do?

I advise clients to bet on every technology horse possible. Not because we don’t know what to do or which technology is the best fit, but the process of constantly re-setting the business to cope with changing technologies is the core competency that every organisation must develop.

I think Facebook is going to fail – or at the very least shrink substantially, but at the same time I still advise many clients to hone their technology competencies on Facebook even though in a few years it may be filed in a memory cabinet along with Ning and Myspace and a long list of others. As I made clear in this post, I am not anti-internet. On the contrary if technology is not part of your present, you have no future.

If you put your hand up in the opening paragraph, please note my question was not facetious: the only way to survive, grow and be successful is to build resilient (or rather antifragile) organisations. That is; building an organisation that is designed to cope with constant change is the goal

Go to it…

Dennis

Ganador Management Solutions specialises in helping organisations in the retail supply chain deal productively with challenges of change.

Why I quit Facebook and why Facebook will fail

Facebook is fundamentally flawed.

The Facebook business model is fundamentally flawed and it will shrink to relative insignificance over time – unless it can jump the curve in some amazing feat of strategic brilliance. (Happy to offer my services, but they are unlikely to ask.)

I know this may seem unthinkable now, but remember that once there was AOL, and then Alta Vista and then Yahoo and MySpace – and none of those are quite what they once were.

Reason #1:

When the mug-punters start departing and take their eye-balls with them, then the businesses will follow pretty soon.

I quit Facebook a few weeks ago. I did not actually deactivate my account, because having the account offers some benefits (such as universal login, and of course access to business pages - including client pages); but I haven’t visited in about a month. I will assess these benefits in due course, but deactivation is quite likely.

I don’t miss it all.

My stream became a river of crap: promoted posts, stupid eCards and ‘like-this-if-you-love-your-daughter’ updates, and finally the straw that broke the camel’s back was the post to ‘share-this-if-you-want-to-be-blessed-in-three-days’ exhortation. There is only so much I can take. (Maybe I should make different friends.)

I am not the first and I won’t be the last. I think Facebook may have jumped the shark.

Are YOU spending more or less time on your personal Facebook today than you did six months ago?

Reason #2:

In essence Facebook is a ‘walled garden’. Many will remember the early days of AOL in the US. The strategy is to provide the ‘user’ everything they need so that they never have to leave. AOL did that by having members-only access to key content. The web 2.0 iteration is to be less obvious and go for being ‘sticky’ rather than forcing the user the stay loyal.

A walled garden is not compatible with the ethos of the internet. As it becomes more intrusive the social benefit of friend-connections will be progressively be diluted.

When it was conceived, it wasn’t as some commercial behemoth – we all know the story. Now it is so big it even it even warrants us labelling its activities as F-Commerce.

Some may remember a previous post about language and culture. The same applies here. The early talk was all about social and friends and connecting and liking people. If you read Facebook press now, the talk is about metrics, and value and commerce because that is what gets measured when you list the company. And that is what will change it from what it was.

Sooner or later people will figure out that Facebook is not a platform that you can use for free; but that YOU are the platform that Facebook uses for free.

Internet-ready Buildings - in 1997

Now I am digging back a long way - to 1997.
At the time I proposed that the commercial property industry create 'Internet Ready Buildings. I canvassed a few like-minded souls in the property association and we pulled together a whitepaper on the topic.. I wrote the introduction.
Bear in mind this was 16 years ago!

Chapter 1

Introduction and orientation

The new digital era knows no limits, no boundaries and does not discriminate.

The old paradigm of business was atomic and the new paradigm is digital.  Old business problems were about getting products and services to physically, now it is about getting it to them digitally.  Take the fax for example.  The old way required getting a physical piece of paper to another destination. Now your letter never leaves the office but the content magically appears at the other end!  The physical dimension (paper) is now not important, and neither is the physical distribution channel.  Now it is a matter of content.  There is that old yuppie slogan “He who dies with the most toys wins”.  Well in business it is “He who has the best content wins”.

The digital age means that everybody has access to information and there is an enormous amount of it. This has an important implication for every type of business:

There is no competitive advantage in having access to information – it is what you do with that information, the type and quality of information that is important.

This is a new truth that a number of businesses have difficulty in understanding and coming to terms with. It manifests itself in property owners sometimes being secretive when it serves no purpose and brokers still thinking that knowing about stock is their advantage when it’s what they know that should be important.

The value of a computer is not R5000 – that is the cost of the hardware.  The information contained therein, the ability to disseminate and manipulate that information is its real value – and I reckon my PC (personal computer) must be worth at least R300 000.  This makes investment in technology quite phenomenal.  Unlike plant and equipment, motorcars or TV’s a PC is upgradeable – it’s scalable. An old TV gets thrown out – but a computer can just grow and grow as your needs evolve. 

An often-quoted management principle is that a company’s success is determined as follows:

  • 20% because of your industry know-how 
  • 40% because of how you treat your customers
  • 40% because of your technology.

Do you spend your business time in those same ratios?

WHAT IS THE INTERNET?

The Internet is a network of computers. These computers are not directly linked to each other but mostly uses the normal telephone infrastructure to ‘talk’ to each other. In order for computers to talk to each other using the analogue telephone infrastructure they each need a modem. This technology has existed for decades, but has only recently become popular with the public.  The reasons are twofold:

Firstly, Internet Service Providers(ISP’s) positioned themselves as routers of information which is effectively the same function that a server plays in an office computer network.  Your computer is not directly linked to another, but rather to your service provider.  Service providers are linked to each other, and every computer that is linked to a service provider is then effectively linked to every other computer.

The second reason is that special software called browsers has been developed that makes it easy for ordinary people to navigate on the information highway. Some years ago this was only possible if you were real computer boffin; and now it is easier than working a word processor. The average lesson to get started is 5 minutes.

HOW DOES THE INTERNET WORK?

The Internet is a fairly new and very dynamic distribution channel for information/ data. Whether it is pictures, sound or words, a computer can turn any data into bits and bytes (binary code); transmit it over the telephone line to any other computer that is connected to the net - anywhere in the world - in an instant!

If you pause to think about that for a minute, you will suddenly realise that the applications are endless - and that is not just a buzzword. It is a TV, VCR, a Hi-Fi, a fax, a typewriter all in one.

It is a network of phenomenal proportions, fast approaching a hundred million computers - and nobody owns it. People join and leave as they please. They can add any content to their computer and post it on their website.  There are no limits.

A sign of a well designed Internet website is one that keeps that visitor (or ‘surfer’) in that site for a long time, and makes them come back for more. The vast majority of the websites are the equivalent of old, bullet-riddled billboards on a dusty platteland road.  Unless you are planning to make your website work for you, you will do more damage than good by having a poor presence on a medium where the users are by definition opinion leaders, innovators and changemasters. 

Many businesses mistake a site with lots of fancy graphics (the so-called bells and whistles) for an effective site. A visitor (and every visitor is a potential customer) will only wait once to see the pictures, but it won’t make them come back.

BUSINESS ON THE NET

From the property perspective, the potential of the Internet is limitless as well. Without leaving your desk, you can:

  • Design a building
  • Raise finance
  • Contact partners/ contractors
  • List the property with brokers
  • Find tenants
  • Sign lease agreements
  • Do appropriate credit checks
  • Show the prospective tenant a finished unit - before construction has even started
  • Keep in contact with every role player
  • Keep an eye on the building work
  • Have site meetings with all concerned
  • Approve the final work

You only have to take occupation of the building physically, and everything else happens in cyberspace. This is not exaggeration, and each one of these activities are taking place now.

The question is: How do I go about doing business on the Net? The answer is, very soon but in an integrated manner:

The window of opportunity is quite small. With the Internet, it does not matter where in the world you are - you are on an equal footing with everyone else. For example, there is one book retailer on the Net (Amazon.com) that has quickly established itself and now there is no need for another. I have no idea where this retailer is physically located in the world; and neither do I need to know.  Every other book retailer will battle to establish a presence. 

As physical property is a somewhat different commodity, the need is somewhat different. The Internet is a potential productivity gain, if you can capitalise on the opportunities that are inherent in the property management and development process. For instance, a specialist architectural practice in Kuala Lumpur or India or wherever  may be contracted to do design work - without incurring travel expenses whatsoever, and have the work paid for at a favourable exchange rate.

To get maximum benefit from an Internet presence, the work-flow in your organisation must be designed to capitalise on the potential productivity gains offered by the Internet. You should not just duplicate existing services in an electronic format. After all do you back up a fax with a telex - just in case? It is a new business paradigm, and the workplace must be re-engineered to take advantage of that. For instance, a tenant may ‘sign’ a lease on the Internet and submit it to you.  The lease can be verified by a credit bureau, approved by a regional manager, posted to the accounts department for notice, deposits made and the Vacancy Schedule updated - without any human interference.

INTERNET WEBSITES

The dominant part of the Internet is the World Wide Web (WWW)- which is just a collection of websites. The website is just a page (or many pages) full of information that you allow access to from the outside. The first page or front page of this electronic publication is the so-called homepage. The homepage usually functions as some kind of a central link or ‘menu’ to the rest of the site. 

The name and address of a website is referred to as an URL. For example, SAPOA’s website address is:

http://www.sapoa.org.za

The address is written entirely in lower case, without any spaces and exactly with the punctuation marks as indicated. One missing full stop or dash or letter will result in your not being able to find the address on the Net.

The components of the address are:

http:// This merely tells your computer that you are using a specific computer language or protocol (hyper text transfer protocol).

www.  This states that your website is hosted on the World Wide Web part of the Internet. There are other aspects to the Net, but you can let the computer boffins worry about that.

sapoa. That is our domain name that has been uniquely registered.

org. This states that it is an Organisation (non-profit). Other alternatives are: co (non-US company), ac and edu (academic and educational institutions), gov (government), and so forth. Most SA companies will have the descriptors .co.za in their URL.

za. This is the country code for South Africa. Other self-explanatory one’s are nz, au, uk and so forth.

The above is your website address. E-mail is usually integrated into the ‘Internet package’, and every domain is entitled to at least one e-mail box. My e-mail address is similar to the website, but not quite the same: stratserv@sapoa.org.za.

You can clearly see the relation between the two addresses, but they are not the same. The difference is like knowing a company’s physical and postal addresses. Both are useful, but for different purposes. The one is for mail, and the other one is to visit!

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROPERTY INDUSTRY

The VMS and other search engines

**Note in 1997 I createda JV with a service provider to create the 'Vacancy Management System' - an early precursor to realestate.com.au

Disintermediation of the broking fraternity is a well-publicised issue. Whereas brokers could previously trade successfully merely based on the fact that they had access to information that nobody else had, those days are now rapidly coming to an end.  The playing field has been levelled and big and small now have access to the same information.  This has lowered the barriers to entry for this industry even further.

At the moment the VMS denies access to the casual surfer and only authorised access by certain members is allowed. This protects the broker from prospective tenants doing deals directly with the owner.  This should not lull brokers into a false sense of security, because it is now the time to seek new service opportunities based on different paradigms. 

PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT

Tenants will soon be asking about Internet-ready buildings- just as they ask about air-conditioners. New developments and refurbishments will have to consider the new technologies. Is it wireless bridges and routers or is it fibre optics? Is it diginet or leased lines? Must the expense be capitalised or is it part of operating costs? Who is responsible for maintenance?  There are a whole host of technical issues that are addressed by this publication.

PROPERTY MANAGEMENT

Much more can now be done from a remote site than was previously possible. Tenants, contractors and professionals can be sourced on the Net. Strategically installed video cameras can be accessed from a distant site and the building observed. Building records can be archived intelligently and very cheaply on the net. Payment for services and rent collection can be done automatically through electronic funds transfer – reducing bad debt risks and arrears.

TRENDS, PROBLEMS AND OPPORTUNITIES

E-mail is becoming pervasive, and is an exceptionally viable alternative to snailmail and fax. Before printing new stationery with your new addresses, investigate whether registering your own domain is not more advisable.

Be careful to register your company’s domain name before somebody else reserves it.  All website addresses are registered at a central database for a once-off fee of approximately R250.00.  A domain name serves the purposes of identifying the addressee.  If your company is the sole tenant of an office block, you want naming rights.

Assuming that your service provider is called Newbuzz, and you are trading as ABC Properties. Your registered e-mail address can be abcprop@newbuzz.co.za; and similarly, your website can be www.newbuzz.co.za/~abcprop.  But you don’t want any reference to your ISP in your address, because if you want to change to a better service provider, you have to redo all your stationery. If you register abcprop as your own domain name, your e-mail address will be (for example) john@abcprop.co.za., and your website address (URL) will be www.abcprop.co.za. This is irrespective of the fact that you are using Newbuzz or any other service provider. (If you want to know what your computer guys have done in this regard, check your business card!)

General practice is that companies have their own domain names, whereas individuals will have their e-mail account addressed to their ISP’s domain.

Choose your service provider with care, and even then don’t sign long term contracts because it is a rapidly changing industry, and not all companies live long.

Be careful of being over-charged for services. Some charge out of ignorance and other out of avarice. Companies without substantial IT/ Computer departments are welcome to contact the author at SAPOA for an opinion on quotations/ costs if they appear substantial.

In companies with office networks, there is a security risk that people from the outside can access your network. Not all hackers are malicious, but if there is a path out (onto the Net) then there is a path in. Firewalls are computers and/or programs that are designed to keep hackers out, but although security is improving - there is no foolproof system. As an interim measure, just connect one free-standing PC to the Internet. The pages that you want on the Internet are hosted at your service provider.  Of course you can act as your own service provider (ISP), but this is advisable really only in very large conglomerates where there are massive economies of scale and hundreds of users.

The Internet-ready building concept

A building can be an office park, a home a shopping centre or an industrial building. A building is internet-ready when it is designed, managed and marketed as space that has been configured and wired for Internet use. The concept of Intelligent buildings is a wider concept that includes for instance highly computerised lifts, air-conditioning etc. which 'intelligently' adapts to its environment.

My contention is, however, that the Internet infrastructure will become the network of choice to create intelligent buildings, and as such will precede the decision to create intelligent buildings in the future.


We have created a market for IDEAS and you are welcome to swing by and get yourself some.
Franchisors: Convert your OPS MANUAL into a custom-branded, interactive web-based application for $5k only

I was smarter than JB Were about Internet Retailing, and Lend Lease did not listen

This week I am focusing on the future. I am talking about the future of Marketing at a Perth Conference in a few months, so I am updating my prognostications and thinking about the future.

Then I came across this beauty:

This is an exact and complete copy of something that I wrote in 2000 - some 13 years ago...
I can't remember who I wrote it for - or indeed why - but I commented on commentary made by JB Were on the (then) JHD Internet retailing study.
Not only did I disagree with their assessment, I also told Lend Lease what they should have done.
NOBODY likes a smartarse - especially after the fact - but I wonder if Lend Lease wished they had listened to me? 'I told you so' is small consolation though...


The future ain’t what it used to be

by D Price

The JB Were commentary on the JHD/ Marketshare Internet retailing study makes interesting reading, but also many arguable points. A study that understates the impact of the Internet shows a distinct lack of understanding of what the Internet is and more importantly what it can be, and apparently also the craft of Retailing. Research is too often a summary of all the answers they get, but did they ask the right questions? Not having had oversight of the original study and its methodology, the questions raised below are inferred from the commentary by JB Were.

One. The first major oversight in stating the impact will be relatively minimal is of course that it ignores the impact of the volatility caused by the many attempts at market entry by hopeful entrepreneurs. Even though many may not last long (the burn rate of their venture capital is too high) they still cause competitive pressure and this is applied serially. This means traditional retailers will face continued and long-term margin squeeze. Like space invaders they just keep coming at you – principally because the barriers to entry are so low. [They are of course their own worst enemy because they are eroding consumer confidence over time.]

Two. Retailing is not only reliant on price to move merchandise. Fundamentally the commentary is correct and that the total cost of merchandise may be made up of different elements (distribution costs v rent). But what the analysis overlooks is that there is also a distribution cost in traditional retail channel which is borne by the customer. If the consumer perceives the + 15% charge for delivery to be less than his or her cost (i.e less than the consumer’s opportunity cost), then a niche opens up for online sales. Convenience is a big factor in retailing and its cost can not be underestimated.

Three. There is a high degree of risk in basically asking consumers to predict their future behaviour. I am willing to bet my entire net worth (don’t get excited, there isn’t much…) that cellular phone sales exceeded all the expectations of manufacturers, service providers, retailers and shopping centre owners. Thomas Watson famously predicted that the worldwide demand for the first IBM mainframes were to be the grand total of 5. The US Telegraph Company saw no future in Alexander Bell’s invention, and the typewriter was rejected initially as fad that could not replace a good stenographer. There are many examples like that including the photocopier and the fax. The Internet gives the consumer freedom, choice and convenience. These are powerful values that drive fundamental consumer behaviour patterns.

Four. The respondents in the survey – in all likelihood- could only assume that web shopping in 5 years time would be the same as it is today. That is, sitting behind the computer, browsing and searching and ordering and waiting and waiting. The technology is in its infancy, and it will evolve to increasingly suit the requirements of consumers. Internet shopping will in future probably not even involve the computer but rather the fridge or the mobile phone. Along the same vein, the study assumes that the 20-yr old of today and the 20-yr old of 2010 will shop the same way and for the same things. The 10-yr old of today is growing up with a different market view and technology expectation.

Five. The effect on the retail mix of centre should not be underestimated. As book stores, music stores, florists, financial services computer & software shops slowly disappear or get relegated to strip shops, it will reduce leasing options, which in turn, because space remains fixed, will be leased (at a lower rate?) to an existing category which diminishes the viability of that category which further pushes rentals down. There is a ripple effect that could be dangerously insidious. The product categories that are most amenable to Internet shopping are:

  • those that can easily be turned from atoms to digits (music, software)
  • those that can be automated because it is either a very routine activity (paying bills) or a highly complicated transaction (buying insurance)
  • the conditional purchases (gifts, impulse items) especially where the recipient is geographically separated from the giver.

Six. As retailers jostle with the dot coms for Internet space & marketshare, the traditional retailer (a) diverts its attention from the existing business and (b) dilutes their financial investment in the existing businesses. This inevitably means less capital expenditure and all the corresponding consequences.

Seven. The commentary does not define ‘shopping’. The role of the Internet in making comparisons, sourcing merchants and/or products may well extend way beyond the actual transfer of cash. These activities are an integral part of the shopping experience and the concomitant loss of impulse buying opportunities that are lost in a shopping centre is enormous. In some categories, impulse buying amounts to 85% of sales.

Eight. The effect of a real decline of 5% in sales obviously also means a decline in volume. Most of the retailer’s distribution costs are relatively fixed, and any savings made by selling less, will certainly be offset by loss of channel power (e.g fewer quantity discounts). This means expenses remain relatively fixed, whilst sales are declining – through to 2005 and beyond. A 5% decline in sales volume that continues to decline must be of concern to any long-term retail property owner. Continued negative prospects will depress share prices, lower the ability of the retailer to raise capital which in turn impacts on its ability to finance itself for new concepts or through sales troughs. ‘Market sentiment’ – as any investor knows – is a difficult thing to change

Nine. The famous saying of ‘Lies, lies and damn statistics’ certainly applies. The graph predicting % online sales (JHD/Marketshare) is very misleading. Internet sales have doubled every year for the last 3 years (at least). The authors are of the opinion that the rate of increase will flatten out dramatically. The graph still shows exponential growth, but the X-axis (time scale) jumps from 1-year intervals to 5-yr intervals on the same axis. Effectively they are saying that the exponential growth will not continue to happen, but the graph still shows the exponential growth curve, which is what we intuitively believe.

This  graph is really what they are predicting – a gradual and steady growth rate and not an exponential growth rate.

The basis of this assumption is the 1700 consumers who were (in some form or another) asked whether they (thought) they were going to shop more often on the Internet in the future. Asking consumers to extrapolate behaviour from the present into new paradigm is very risky to say the least.

Ten. The results are ‘surprising’ because the impact is ‘less significant than the market expectation’. I would be very worried if my research differed from the ‘market’. There is always a first time, but the market never gets it wrong. Basic human greed may make investors overpay for shares in the future and correct it, but there are literally thousands and thousands of investors and analysts who have looked at the Internet, and they have seen the future. I think this may be a case of getting the right answer to the wrong question.

Finally. It is often said that a company’s supreme goal is to ‘satisfy the customer’s needs’. Paradoxically, this is also fraught with the danger that the customer’s future needs (which are presently unprofitable) are ignored. Focus on present customer satisfaction stifles innovation. I don’t believe LLR is the kind of company that will risk that.

My view is that the Internet, as we know it, is going to change the shopping landscape radically and forever. The process will take time and there is sufficient space and time to enter the market better than most of the hype would seem to suggest. Most importantly, I believe Lend Lease should focus on the Infrastructure side of the business where

  • there is higher barriers to entry
  • the existing skills set of project management can be best leveraged
  • Lend Lease has traditionally made its money (property infrastructure & financial infrastructure)
  • the scope is global & compatible with existing businesses and not competing with customers and suppliers.

The Internet (shopping) phenomenon reminds me of the situation where a movie becomes hugely popular despite the fact that all critics hate it. But then, it is just another opinion…

Regards

Dennis Price


We have created a market for IDEAS and you are welcome to swing by and get yourself some.
Franchisors: Convert your OPS MANUAL into a custom-branded, interactive web-based application for $5k only

10 things the internet brought us – for better or for worse…

Here is my starter list. What can you add?
  1. Amazon & convenient eCommerce: Made a few millionaires at the price of the livelihood millions of little guys.
  2. Instant news: Even as it consumes the industry that feeds it along the way.
  3. eLearning and access to education for thousands: So that students don’t have to go to class anymore.
  4. Online gaming: So that nerds can be alone together.
  5. Email: Who needs to talk to anyone anymore?
  6. Porn: No need to buy DVDs from shops with curtains on the door.
  7. Spam: Employment opportunity for Nigerians.
  8. Wikileaks: Hackers hiding behind civil libertarians.
  9. YouTube Entertainment: Have you ever read the comments?
  10. Social Media: The biggest thing since porn
  • To help the needy need more.
  • For the self-righteous do-gooders to compete with self-righteous fundamentalists.
  • Party-crashers & Vigilantes: An instant mobilisation tool
  • Trolls: Because we treasure freedom of speech.

Strategies that fail because the CEO's ego gets in the way.

Is your ego writing strategy cheques that your business can’t cash?

When bees decide to relocate their colony, approximately half the bees scatter in all directions search for new sites. (The rest remain and continue working the existing site.)

When they return, the signal the attractiveness of the sites they found by the intensity of the buzzing. More bee ‘scouts’ then visit the ones that are deemed to be the most attractive and then return to the site and communicate in the same way.

The process iterates.

At some point critical mass is reached – a group consensus of sorts – and the hive relocates en masse.

The business equivalent of this can be seen in corporate strategy. (The following description is based on an article by ED Beinhocker of McKinsey.)

At the world’s largest technology trade show of the time (Comdex 1998) there were a range of tech powerhouses strutting their stuff:

  • Apple Computer >>> the brilliantly graphical Macintosh operating system.
  • AT&T, Hewlett-Packard, and Sun Microsystems à graphical versions of the UNIX operating system.
  • IBM >>> the new OS/2, an operating system said to combine DOS compatibility with the power of UNIX and the Mac’s ease of use.

While most booths focused on a single blockbuster technology, Microsoft’s booth was a mish-mash of technologies including:

  • the second version of its much delayed and highly criticized Windows system, which had as yet gained little market share,
  • the latest release of DOS,
  • OS/2, which it had developed with IBM,
  •  major new releases of Word, Excel, and other applications that ran on Apple’s Mac; and
  • SCO UNIX, a PC-compatible version of the UNIX operating system, developed by a company that had a marketing agreement with Microsoft.

Columnists wrote that Microsoft was adrift, that its chairman and chief operating officer, Bill Gates, had no strategy. Although the outcome of this story is now well-known, at the time it wasn’t obvious which operating system would win.

In the face of this uncertainty, Microsoft followed the only robust strategy: betting on every horse.

Most retail businesses are in the process of responding to significant changes in the retail landscape. Very important strategic decisions are being made right now committing the organisation and its resources to a certain course of action.

If you have not done so, please read the following:

There are recent articles on skeuomorphism, the retail war and finally, one on the omni-channel pipedream. There are many other supporting philosophies and arguments for this approach, but space constraints don’t permit a full discussion, so let me simply jump straight to a conclusion and recommendations:

Organisations tend to want to take big bets on strategy - mostly because CEOs are archetypical alpha males with matching egos. It looks spectacular when it comes off, but it usually fails. (E.g. mergers and acquisitions fail 70%-90% of the time.)

Anticipating possible counter-arguments and comments suffice to say that:

1. Even though companies have limited resources and must prioritise, taking multiple small bets is a (more) viable option.

2. Adopting this approach has nothing to do with diversification – which may or may not be a good idea – and a business can still stick to its knitting and take multiple smaller ‘bets’ on their future. (Let’s face it, the outcome of a strategy is no more certain than any other gamble…)

Food for thought as we start thinking about taking a break.

Go the revolution…

Dennis Price

Training, Technology & Tactics for the Retail Revolution

YOU EITHER STAND FOR SOMETHING OR NOTHING>> HERE

 

Skeuomorphism: The business model design disease

Does your business model suffer from skeuomorphism?

Business leaders tend to keep on eye on signs of success in other companies. Ostensibly this is to learn from, but honestly, it is often to copy successful strategies in the absence of original strategies.

There are many things wrong with this approach:

1. No two companies are the same (resources, abilities etc.)

2. The strategic context is always very different.

3. Business leaders, like the public, are seduced by the story without understanding the substance.

4. It is complex – if not impossible – to identify, articulate and translate the essence of the learning from a one company, environment and context to another.

Business plans are pretty useless, but designing the right business model is crucial to your success.

When we consider design we must also understand skeuomorphism.

Definition: A skeuomorph is a design element of a product that imitates design elements that were functionally necessary in the original product design, but which have become ornamental in the new design. (The word is now more commonly also being used beyond the constraints of physical design treatments only.)

Example: Artificial leather grain on items that traditionally used leather but now use plastics, such as car dashboards and books, or a floppy disk icon to represent the idea of ‘saving a digital file’ when there are no longer floppy disks around are examples

(I have only become aware of skeuomorphism in the last year or so – don’t let the lingo deter you.)

Read this great post on Skeuomorphic business models; even though it is about publishing specifically it offers great insights.

It vindicates my argument that replicating your current bricks-and-mortar retail business as an online channel is not a smart thing to do. It is a skeuomorphic error in designing your business model.

In order to explain the application, I will pick on the company du Jour - Apple and compare that to Spotify.

I am not a fan of Apple. I know you are – but don’t take it personally. Other than the cult-like pressure to like it because everybody likes it – social proof - and that they really do have well-designed products, I don’t like how their business model requires you to play exclusively in their walled garden. If most people were honest, the technology is not that great even if it is cool. I made this prediction in mid 2010. And there are now some worrying signs for Apple investors.)

Before Apple there was Microsoft and Intel. Before them there was IBM. Microsoft was a real innovator with a long list of failed products. In fact, Apple only exists because Bill Gates bailed them out.

I use Apple products too and there are many great things they have done that we can learn from. Strategically, as marketers and as innovators Apple is the bellwether company of the Tech Age.

The only problem is that the Tech Age has peaked.

Just like no one is trying to copy Microsoft’s business model or Intel’s strategies, you should get over your infatuation with Apple.

If there is a business model to emulate and learn from – given all the warnings above – it is Spotify. (If you don’t use the service – you really should try it, if you are not familiar with it, click on the link and check it out.)

Spotify have avoided skeuomorphic errors in designing their business model:

They have figured out a way to work with the status quo

They have created an opportunity to explore their product with no risk and no commitment (unlike Apple)

They live their Brand – they don’t talk it. Even the ads they run are ‘on target’ and sensitive to the context.

The commercial aspects are not creepy or intrusive (Hello Gmail, Hello Facebook.)

They offer the music the way we listen to it, not the way they can deliver it

It is social in its fabric, but you can easily and simply control exactly how social or how private you want it to be

It is offered at a price point that makes sense – for the price of ¼ of a CD per month you have unlimited music. (Compare this to iTunes - at $2 per download –it’s the same as the cost of a CD, and you never OWN that music and you are bound to listen to it on Apples platform and equipment. Everyone knows that it is a rip off. They won’t exist in 5 years unless they fundamentally change.

Avoiding a skeuomorphic error is easy once you are aware of what it is. A good start would be to reconsider any attempt to replicate your business model in the online world.

Just because it works the way it does in your bricks-and-mortar store, doesn’t mean it should be included in your eCommerce venture.

Dennis Price

Training, Technology & Tactics for the Retail Revolution

A Butterfly Is Not A Better Version Of A Caterpillar

 

Oroton is the best multi-channel retailer in Australia?

Oroton has just won the multi-channel retailer of the year award. I do think they are a cool company with as strong retail proposition, but if the company is taking this award seriously then I would be worried.

They only declare that online is <10% of sales. But like-for-like sales are up +10% in Aus and +40% in Asia and total Revenue is up +12%. This means that online is only a fraction of total revenue. Whilst it is growing fast (+60%), I would not consider them to be a true multi-channel success story. Yet.

(I did not break down revenues from retail/wholesale or other revenues to get a more detailed picture.)

They have a really good-looking website (perfectly on brand) but there are some worrying signs for me.

The annual report kicks off with 16 full page colour images, which is somewhat excessive – even for a luxury brand – in an era when consumers and presumably investors keep an eye on all things green.

The following observations point to the hand of a third party (agency?) really running things as opposed the organisation that really gets social media:

  • Check out the Twitter profile and they only have about 2000 followers – quite insignificant for a strong brand. The feed is entirely self-promotional.
  • The Twitter algorithm suggests the sites that are most similar to them to be a few PR Twitter profiles.
  • They have a respectable 124K Facebook fans. Again, there is no meaningful sense of community and the Facebook wall is mostly promotional.
  • The fan growth has happened over a very short period of time and does not appear to be organic.
  • Digging a bit deeper, the profile of their Facebook fans are predominantly 18-24 year olds. I can’t be sure who they consciously target, but my observation is that it would not be the younger age groups. (For example the charity they support is Breast Cancer, which is usually something would point to a slightly more mature market.)

Social Media nous does not equate to multi-channel success, but arguably there should be a really good correlation.

The fact that revenues are small (albeit fast-growing) does not mean it is a multi-channel failure.

But if this is the best multi-channel retailer in the country then we have a very long way to go.

Oroton should be congratulated for being the best they can be. It is pretty good. But I have no doubt that they would be the first to admit that they are very much experimenting and learning about this multi-channel game.

I really hope that they did not let 'online' take their eye off the ball because the loss of Ralph Lauren brand is a much bigger thing to solve.

Not telling you how to suck eggs, but this should be your strategic focus

Not being a retailer (any more), has its advantages. Having better hours is one. The other is having an objective perspective on the important issues without being hampered by tradition, politics and momentum. Therefore I would like to propose and outsider’s take on what should be on the retailers’ perpetual agenda at the moment. (Some more obvious than others – but added for completeness anyway.)

Inside Retailing (the magazine) had a nice feature article that references some these topics below – you should subscribe if you don’t already.

1.     Supply Chain

Finding suppliers who are co-operative, cost-effective and innovative is a tough job. Many suppliers are not ideal retail partners and replacing them with ones who are would be a top concern. Understanding your suppliers’ agenda about the internet is top of the list.

Without product that is delivered at a price-point that consumers are willing to pay and that provides sufficient margins, staying in business is nearly impossible. Having a partnership mentality is crucial. If price was all that mattered, we’d all be dropshipping.

2.     Mobile

I can’t even quote the stats because I am certain that it increases by the week; but consumers are now connected to the world via their smartphones. It is already their primary means of communications, and in the near future that device will be come their wallet and their ID.

If you can’t deal with mobile customers, soon you won’t be in business at all. (Most categories.)

3.     Channel Integration

Consumers are increasingly seeking a seamless shopping experience. The current generation of shoppers see no reason (and there is no reason) why a store can’t be ‘shopped’ anywhere anytime in any format.

It is actually NOT about multi-channel or omni-channel; it is about having ONE channel, one experience and one price point.

This is frictionless retailing.

4.     Experience

eTailers are opening stores – and the one that surprised me most is www.shoesofprey.com –  and B&M retailers are opening websites to claw back some of their territory. The point is; this retail channel of the future will be defined and judged by how the customer experiences it. (And by experience I include the online- and offline experience.)

It is easier than ever to leave a store and shop elsewhere; and in fact, given (3) above, they will leave your store without leaving your store.

Note that customer experience is not customer service.

5.     Store Configuration

Stores are designed based on an ancient shopkeeper’s model. They are large inefficient on every level (from logistical to experiential) and do not reflect the new retail realities.

Contrary to popular belief, landlords won’t take a bath (maybe a dip) with rental reductions - they will evolve the store formats (along with innovative retailers) to better reflect shopping habits and new consumer behaviours.

6.     Community/ Localisation

Connecting with your community – the tribe – is crucial to future success. We are entering a few decades which will be dominated by “WE” (instead of ME) and retailers who cannot find that social connection with a viable community will struggle for sustainability.

Business may thrive briefly whilst there is a unique offer or a very special price, but as soon as that fades, connectedness will win out again.

7.  Culture

Finding, training and retaining the right staff is and must be an ongoing priority. Because of cost pressures, retail wages (at the ground floor) are at the lower end of the scale and it is an industry plagued by image problems make it a less attractive career choice for many.

I see too many businesses that give up and ‘settle’ for what they can get. There is more to creating an effective workforce that can truly ‘live’ your brand than paying more money.

HOW this is done should be a major concern of all retail executives on an ongoing basis.

8. Bonus Item: Trimming the agenda

What you leave off the agenda is just as important as what you put on. There will always be issues that clamour for attention. And top of the list is: Social Media.

This is no more or no less important than TV or PR or any other marketing activity. Learning how to be a ‘social’ business is important – as covered under #6 above. However to elevate Social Media to strategic agenda item (permanently) is a folly. By all means use the tool – it has great potential – but it is not a substitute for a marketing strategy.

Actually I lied about having better hours. It’s just as bad. But at least I am sitting down more often than not J

Have fun. (Really.)

Dennis

Ganador provides smart strategies, content and technology for customer education and acquisition in the retail supply chain at twice the value and half the cost of the alternative…

Did you miss the Winning Circle? You can still GET it…It contains no fewer than THREE presentations on the future of retail.

 

Your Reward

Apologies once again for the numerous re-posts. I have been on the receiving end of those before and now I know why: Feedburner going nuts.

Your reward is 20 minutes with Neil Gaiman. I promise it is worth it.

© 2013 Ganador Management Solutions (Pty) Ltd PO Box 243 Kiama, NSW, 2533 Australia Tel: (+61)2-4237 7168 (Header Left: Chaos_Theory_by_clubraf @ DevianArt)